HCAOG 2002-04 RTP Update

V. FINANCIAL ELEMENT

A. PURPOSE

The purpose of the Financial Element is to provide a summary of the projected costs of transportation facilities listed in the RTP and the revenue sources required to fund those facilities. This section includes a summary of the costs to implement programs discussed in the Action Element and a discussion of the sources of revenue available to fund them. Surpluses and deficits resulting from the difference in projected revenues and planned expenditures are identified, along with the ramifications of implementing only those improvements that have secure funding. Finally, alternative sources of funding are explored and a summary funding strategy is presented.

The Financial Element takes a realistic look at available funding and proposed projects, consistent with RTP guidelines. The Financial Element's first four years of programming are linked with the STIP Fund Estimates adopted by the CTC. However, the 2004 STIP Fund Estimate will be released and adopted by the CTC at a later date than from the conclusion of this RTP update. Therefore, this RTP relies on information collected from state representatives most knowledgeable with the STIP such as Caltrans and the CTC to approximate the STIP revenues that are anticipated from the 2004 Fund Estimate.

To meet these guidelines the Financial Element includes: an inventory of existing and potential funding sources; and an evaluation of these sources based on a range of revenue assumptions.


B. CONTEXT OF THE TRANSPORTATION

FUNDING ENVIRONMENT


The update of the Humboldt County RTP comes at a pivotal juncture in the context of the funding environment. Several past and current conditions, coupled with new funding opportunities, have altered the transportation funding landscape. These events include:






Passage of Proposition 42


The general electorate in March 2002 overwhelmingly voted in favor of dedicating retail sales tax revenues from the sale of gasoline to transportation indefinitely, thereby expanding the Traffic Congestion Relief Program created in 2000. Before its passage, the sales tax revenues were being deposited into the state general fund for non-transportation purposes. Proposition 42 currently generates over $1 billion annually statewide.


The revenues go toward several programs, including specific projects selected by the Governor, state highways, local streets and roads, and transit. The percentage of revenues allocated to each program is as follows:


Governor's Traffic Congestion Relief Program ($678 million per year through 2008)
State Highways (40% of remaining revenues)
Local Streets (20% of remaining revenues)
County Roads (20% of remaining revenues)
Transit (20% of remaining revenues - 10% goes to intercity rail, 10% for local transit)


Despite its passage, the state legislature has decided to capitalize on a provision in the Proposition that allows the revenues generated from Prop. 42 to be returned back to the General Fund for non-transportation uses. To address the problems created by the troubling economy, the governor, upon agreement by the legislature, transferred $2.5 billion from the TCRP to the general fund for fiscal years 2002 and 2003. To offset the loss from sales tax revenues, the TCRP program was extended two years to 2007-2008. However, this transfer was only the beginning.


The Governor and legislature continued the raid on Prop. 42 revenues in FY 2003-04, diverting all but $289 million to the General Fund (about $838 million is diverted). Of the $289 million, $189 million will go towards TCRP projects already under contract and the remaining $100 million will go toward the STIP. Repayment with interest by 2009 was included in the budget bill, but is not guaranteed. In essence, from its onset, Proposition 42, in its current form, is an unstable new source of transportation revenue, making it difficult for transportation agencies to rely on it for programming projects.



State Budget Crises has Direct Impact on Near Term Transportation Funding


Perhaps the most significant circumstance since adoption of the last RTP is the deterioration of the fiscal condition of the state's general fund. The decline in the growth in state general fund revenues resulted from a weakening economy and a seemingly intractable disruption of the energy supply, resulting in the state purchasing several billions of dollars in electricity. This has a direct impact on the Traffic Congestion Relief Program which is funded by state sales tax revenues from the retail sales of motor vehicle fuels.


Since the economic recession the last few years, $6 billion has been borrowed from the State Highway Account to balance the general fund. With an anticipated continuation of the fiscal crises, revenues remain uncertain for some time.


Since 2000, the state of California has been endeavoring to align general fund revenues and expenditures through a succession of state budgets, after a precipitous decline in state income taxes in 2000. Every source of revenue has contributed to bailing out the state's general fund, including transportation revenues, which were assumed to be committed exclusively to transportation programs due to protective clauses in the state constitution. In fact, with the recent enactment of the FY 2004 state budget, nearly $6 billion in transportation revenues have been shifted to support the general fund either through deferrals in expenditures, loans or direct transfers since the beginning of the crises, according to legislative staff. This is the equivalent to two years of capital outlay expenditures by Caltrans.


While repayment has been promised it is unclearly when it will actually happen and over what period of time. In the meantime, the FY 2005 state budget will begin with an $8 billion deficit that is likely to grow, according to most state budget experts. It may be nearly ten years, nearly a third of the way into the 2030 RTP period, before the state works its way of out of this fiscal crisis.


The State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) is likely to be severely impacted from the fiscal woes. Caltrans is in the process of preparing the 2004 State Fund Estimate which provides a forecast of state transportation revenues available for project programming in the STIP for the next five years. Indications are that the Fund Estimate would not be adopted until December 2003, which would be several months behind schedule. Reasons for the delay include late passage of the state budget, the uncertainty with the reauthorization of TEA-21, and the uncertainty with the general health of the California economy. There are early indications that there will not be any new money for transportation projects in the new STIP.



TEA-21 is expiring


The federal transportation bill that has provided over $200 billion in revenues for transportation nationwide the past 6 years expires on September 30, 2003. The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) needs to be renewed; however, Congress is also grappling with a severe fiscal crisis of its own. Passage of a new bill, or at least an extension of the current one, will allow continued flow of federal dollars to transportation in California, which are primarily programmed into the STIP or made available directly to regional transportation agencies.


Overview Of The Bush Administration's Safetea


TEA-21 provided a total of $218 billion for highway, transit, and safety programs - representing a 40% increase in funding over the previous six-year authorization period under the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA -- $155B, 1992-1997). Further, TEA-21 ensured that funding levels for surface transportation programs were tied to receipts coming in to the Highway Trust Fund, and that such funding levels are guaranteed by a budgetary firewall mechanism.


On May 14, 2003, the Bush Administration formally released its reauthorization proposal entitled the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act of 2003 or SAFETEA. Some highlights of the proposal are as follows: